Specialist travel firms remain confident overall about trading this year despite significant uncertainty caused by current geopolitical events.
Speaking at Aito’s Annual General Meeting in London, tour operators said it was hard to predict how the rest of the year would pan out, particularly given recent efforts to negotiate peace in the Ukraine and Gaza.
The Specialist Travel Association (Aito) chairman Chris Rowles told members: “There is uncertainty, there are going to be difficulties, but you can see your way through this. There is reassurance too, business is good, people are saying they want to travel.”
Speaking on a panel debate, Smart Currency foreign exchange risk management consultant Jatin Saini (pictured) referenced geopolitical upheaval caused by trade wars between the US and Mexico, Canada and China, and attempts by the US to get involved in peace deals in the Ukraine and Gaza.
“There is a lot of uncertainty ahead of us,” he said, but added: “I think the general feeling is we are moving towards peace [in Gaza] and surely that means good news for tourism and travel [and] if we are able to move away from the war in Ukraine that means fuel prices will come down and air fares go down.”
More: Aito to hold overseas conference in Asturias region
Also on the panel, Natasha Nahhas of Israel destination management company Albina Tours, said her family business had not run any tours for 18 months due to the Gaza conflict. But she expressed optimism of the ceasefire leading to an end of the current conflict.
She said: “We have a feeling on the ground that once peace happens it will offer stability for a few years to come. I am very confident that just like the three generations of family before me, our family business will survive this.”
Pru Goudie, owner of Adventure Travel Networking, said adventure travellers would continue to travel, switching back to destinations once they were deemed safe. “Adventure travellers still want to go away two to three times a year,” she added.
Aito operators and business partners said the outlook was challenging but called current issues more of “a bump in the road” than a trading threat.
Travel Department non executive director Sara Zimmerman said: “Every survey says people want to travel and that it’s no longer discretionary. In terms of the uncertainty, it has created challenges but these are not an existential threat, certainly not to the travel industry.”
Jamil Malik managing director of flight wholesaler Faremine said air fares had remained at a higher level since post Covid, up to £1,200 on average from £650 pre Covid.
He said: “Passenger numbers have gone down, but margins have gone up. This year is a difficult one to call. I think there will be some nervousness as a result of trade wars, world events, savings and pensions [interest rates]. People are feeling anxiety about what happens to their pensions – but I think it’s all still to play for.”
James Turner, commercial director of bespoke wildlife operator Wildfoot Travel said: “We have had our strongest-ever February. Bucket list trips still seem to be happening.”